Articles - Flambeau one step closer to election? Written By: Jason Sifflet

If Flambeau leaders thought last December’s anniversary rally was something, Soufriere had more surprises in store for them.
Two Sundays ago, ruling party supporters showed up in the thousands for a pre-convention rally meant to test the waters as the government gears up for the next election. And Prime Minister Stephenson King noticed that a large number of people there were young, new voters.
“Of course, it was structured to be this way,” one of the organizing committee members told the STAR, “so that the cameras see a huge crowd no matter which way they look. Just like in Dennery, last year, when we surprised party leaders with the number of people that supported the anniversary rally.”
“The crowd did exceed Dennery,” government press secretary Darnley Lebourne confirmed. “But I am not surprised. The UWP is a mainstream party and this is a reflection of the base support of the party. People are discerning and they see an aggressive opposition. For some people that’s a good thing. But a lot of people interpret the aggression of the opposition as desperation and they see that the SLP is manufacturing a lot of what it is saying—like their take on the US State Department report. If you read the statement you would think that the State Department condemned the government, rather than commented on press reports of an aggressive opposition.”
The ruling party, confirming its pre-election mode, launched three candidates, one of them, the newest addition to the cabinet.
Guy Mayers and Allen Chastanet are already well known to the St Lucian voter. One of them is the government’s fireman, staving off the pressures of violent crime on behalf of the elected members. The other is the golden boy, the reputed favourite of the ruling party’s old money oligarchs to become future prime minister of St Lucia. Both have a hard fight ahead of them, facing Labour incumbents who, at least, seem to have a closer relationship with the ground than they do. But both of them have high profile ministries which keep them in the public eye more than their competitors.
This is exactly what Flambeau wanted for its most newly minted endorsed candidate.
The third person officially launched as a UWP candidate is the new attorney general. Lorenzo “Doddy” Francis’ appointment is symbolic of Flambeau’s newfound enthusiasm for the near future. He was one of three new candidates the government hoped to appoint since last December. But the refusal of former attorney general Nicholas Frederick to resign his post became a stumbling block to the change the ruling party wanted to make before going into pre-election mode. Now that he has blown into the attorney general’s chambers like a breath of fresh air, making widely applauded changes to the status quo, the government hopes that he will have what it takes to take a seat away from a well-loved Labour MP.
Is Flambeau finally thinking election? Or do they still need something else to reassure them?
“I don’t think you will see an election later this year or even in the first quarter of next year,” one source from the prime minister’s office said. “Things like this a prime minister keep close to his chest. But I think the government wants to see more projects get off the ground first.”
Recently the government approved its capital spending budget, indicating that some real stimulus spending will soon get off the ground. Some in Flambeau’s inner circles think that once the projects start putting money into circulation, the Flambeau has a chance to call an early election and avoid at least one big potential pitfall.
“The government agreed to implement VAT by a certain time when they accepted the IMF’s exogenous shock funds,” one of government’s financial advisor’s told the STAR. “But the problem is that you can’t implement VAT on the eve of an election. If the government could get its capital projects moving and give the impression that they are making a difference in people’s lives, they could have an opportunity to call a winning election by early next year before they have to implement the VAT.”
One of the things that all schools of thought agree on within the ruling party is that Flambeau must shore up support with a crucial part of its base. The United Workers Party has traditionally been the party of the middle class—not just the petty bourgeois and old money, but the shop keepers and contractors. They have to consolidate their support among those voters to assure themselves victory in the next election.
All sides in Flambeau are fairly confident of winning most of the seats that they have now, although there are concerns for one or two in the banana belt. Optimism is high that Guy Mayers and Allen Chastanet can bring home Castries East and Soufriere, respectively, while Doddy Francis, it is hoped, will be the right kind of candidate to give the well-liked Robert Lewis a good run for his money.
But all sides agree that there is at least one seat where trouble may be brewing.
Many in Flambeau thought that Marcus Nicholas might be ready to bow out after serving two terms. But Nicholas is showing no signs of making room for the likes of Ausbert d’Auvergne to return to politics.
“And now that Damian Greaves is out of politics for now, it seems like Marcus is not even getting good opposition from the Labour party,” one fellow MP commented. Tensions between Micoud North representative Jeannine Compton and her colleagues also raise questions about the party’s ability to bring home that seat. In neighbouring Micoud South, reports of disenchantment with the incumbent Arsene James’ nepotism could affect the party’s chances of assured victory.
But those problems notwithstanding, Flambeau is crouched and waiting to pounce the moment its leaders think the opportunity presents to itself.
“Never mind SLP’s bravado,” said one close to the prime minister. “They seem to be struggling to get candidates in certain key seats like Gros Islet and Castries South-East.”
The SLP even seems to have trouble finding someone to do Flambeau a favour and defeat Marcus Nicholas. It seems to be the kind of weakness one might want to exploit.
Still the government waits for better fortune, relying on the Labour party to stay on its knees until everything is just right for Flambeau to get the nerve and call elections.